Nicaragua Canal, a century-old project. Will China be the Lifeguard in Daniel Ortega's Nicaragua?

 

The Nicaragua Canal is a century-old project.  China´s 300 billion canal project may change the world shipping pattern, https://youtu.be/OaF7Zfi5gr4.  

 

Nicaragua is the largest country in the Central American isthmus, bordered by Honduras to the northwest, the Caribbean to the east, Costa Rica to the south, and the Pacific Ocean to the southwest. Managua is the country's capital and largest city, it was estimated to be the second-largest city in Central America. The multi-ethnic population of six million includes people of mestizo, indigenous, European, and African heritage. The main language is Spanish. Indigenous tribes on the Mosquito Coast speak their own languages and English. 

 

Plans for a canal crossing in Nicaragua first emerged in the 19th century. As a shipping channel, the essential purpose of the construction of the Nicaragua canal is to provide a maritime shortcut between the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. In the 21st century, new ambitions emerged to construct such a canal in view of introducing a direct competitor to the Panama Canal. However, the chance that the canal will ever be built remains low.

The Nicaraguan Canal formally the Nicaraguan Canal and Development Project (also referred to as the Nicaragua Grand Canal, or the Grand Interoceanic Canal) was a proposed shipping route through Nicaragua to connect the Caribbean Sea (and therefore the Atlantic Ocean) with the Pacific Ocean. Scientists were concerned about the project's environmental impact, as Lake Nicaragua is Central America's key freshwater reservoir while the project's viability was questioned by shipping experts and engineers.

The construction of a canal using the San Juan River as an access route to Lake Nicaragua was first proposed in the early colonial era. The United States abandoned plans to construct a waterway in Nicaragua in the early 20th century after it purchased the French interests in the Panama Canal.

Until the beginning of the 20th century, before the opening of the Panama Canal, Nicaragua used to be the main overland trade route and hub of transshipment of goods between ocean-going vessels on the Atlantic side and those on the Pacific. In the meantime, the idea of constructing a man-made waterway through Central America has been thought about throughout history. The colonial administration of New Spain had conducted preliminary surveys. The routes suggested usually ran across Nicaragua, Panama, or the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico.

The history of attempts to build a Nicaragua canal connecting the Caribbean Sea and thus the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean goes back at least to 1825 when the Federal Republic of Central America hired surveyors to study a route via Lake Nicaragua, 32.7 meters (107 ft) above sea level. Many other proposals have followed. Despite the operation of the Panama Canal, which opened in 1914, interest in a Nicaragua canal has continued. With the emergence of globalization, an increase in commerce and the cost of fuel, and the limitations of the Panama Canal, the concept of a second canal across the American land bridge became more attractive, and in 2006 the president of Nicaragua, Enrique Bolaños, announced an intention to proceed with such a project. Even with the Panama Canal expansion project, which began the commercial operation to allow modern New Panamax vessels on 26 June 2016, some ships would be too big for the Panama Canal.

 

The Nicaragua Canal would have a minimum water depth of 26.9–29.0 m, thus accommodating vessels with a draft of 24–26 m, which are too large to pass through the expanded Panama Canal. The canal can easily accommodate all existing and planned container ships, 320,000 DWT VLCC (very large crude oil carriers), 400,000 DWT bulk carriers, and other mega vessels with these water depth conditions. The Nicaragua Canal would thus surpass by far the capacities of both the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal in terms of nautical characteristics.

 

The expansion of the Panama Canal underlines the technical feasibility of the Nicaragua project, but also its engineering complexity and costs. Due to the length of the canal, several physical obstacles (e.g. Isthmus of Rivas) necessitated the construction of locks and the requirement to accommodate large ships in both directions at once. Construction costs would be excessive, with some estimates placing them at more than 40 billion dollars, and delays and cost overruns almost always plague megaprojects. This represents a very high sunk cost before any revenue can be generated. In comparison, the expansion of the Panama Canal had a price tag of about 6 billion dollars.

 

The proposed canal passes in an area of volcanic and seismic activity, one of the reasons why Panama was initially retained for a transoceanic canal. There is thus a risk of potential damage to infrastructure and even closure. The project would also go through wetlands and conservation areas, implying negative impacts on ecosystems. The canal route crosses Lake Nicaragua, the country’s largest freshwater lake. Canal dredging and shipping activities may seriously impact the lake’s water quality and ecological environment. Shipping activities on the canal would seriously affect biodiversity and the protection of endangered species. The Nicaragua canal shipping activities would negatively affect the surrounding tropical rainforest, forest wetlands, natural and biosphere reserves, and other ecological systems. Shipping ballast water could also cause marine biological invasion. The canal project would also destroy local archaeological sites, disrupt the lives of indigenous people, and cause damage to other social environments. 

 

Nicaragua has a history of political instability, and its governance system is thus prone to risks. According to Transparency International, its corruption perception index for 2013 was 29/100, which is very low (ranked 130 out of 176 countries). Nicaragua is thus perceived as a highly corrupted country where the rule of law is not effectively enforced. 

 

Panama cut ties with Taiwan in June 2017 and is forging stronger relations with China. Panama’s policy reversal with respect to Taiwan may be linked to China’s massive investment in the area around the Panama Canal. The stronger economic and diplomatic exchanges between China and Panama undermine plans for the realization of the Nicaragua Canal.

 

Major transoceanic canal projects, such as the cases of Panama and Suez, have required setting an independent governance structure managing the infrastructures and operations. They are self-financed and highly independent of political interventions. It is uncertain if such a governance structure can be established in Nicaragua, increasing risks to investors and potential users.

 

Project costs were estimated in the region of $40 billion to $50 billion.  Following financial difficulties, HKND finally closed its Headquarter offices in China in April 2018, leaving no forwarding address or telephone numbers to be reached.   

 

Beginning in April 2018, a series of brutal crackdowns have occurred in Nicaragua as the Ortega-Murillo regime has ratcheted up its repression against opponents and civil society alike, accelerating its drive to consolidate a dynastic dictatorship. 

 

Today, Nicaragua is best characterized as a police state with no alternative centers of social or political organization outside of the ruling regime. More specifically, the state functions like a family business, with all the ruling couple’s children occupying government posts or prominent positions in public companies. The couple has not revealed its wealth for 20 years. Few have been spared by the National Police, Nicaraguan Army, and/or the paramilitary groups that are loyal to Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo. Further, the regime has brutally repressed Indigenous peoples, journalists, and members of the Nicaraguan clergy. The government currently holds over 200 political prisoners, most in abhorrent conditions at El Chipote, a prison complex outside Managua known for its use of torture and dungeon-like conditions.

  

In response to protests against cuts to social security, the Nicaraguan government adopted a chilling strategy that has been described by Amnesty International as “shoot to kill.” This strategy led the Nicaraguan government to be accused by various international actors of committing crimes against humanity. In 2018 alone, over 350 people were killed and more than 2,000 were injured, with accompanying reports of widespread extrajudicial imprisonment and torture. Thousands of neighborhoods erected barricades as a form of defense from the regime’s relentless violence, which was indiscriminate in most cases. More than 100,000 people were sent into exile as the regime instructed doctors to deny care to wounded protesters (in clear contravention of the Hippocratic Oath), burned families alive, and employed snipers to kill more than a dozen people in a single day. 

 

With the authorization of their respective Governments, the representatives of Nicaragua and China signed a joint communiqué between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of Nicaragua on the Reestablishment of Diplomatic Relations in the City of Tianjin, on the 10th day of the month of December 2021.

 

In a March 12, 2022 statement, the Vatican said the Nicaraguan government “has decided to withdraw its approval of H.E. Mons. Waldemar Stanislaw Sommertag, Apostolic Nuncio in Managua since 2018, imposing that he immediately leave the country after notifying him of this measure”.   

 

Today the Catholic Church is a religion considered "persecuted" in Nicaragua, as different bishops and priests have mentioned on different occasions.   

 

Leopoldo Brenes, cardinal of Nicaragua, called for a change of direction in the country. During the Sunday mass that he presided at the Metropolitan Cathedral of Managua, the cardinal once again called for a change of government with biblical references.   

 

Nicaragua's crisis worsened with the 2021 general elections, when Ortega and his wife, Vice President Rosario Murillo, were re-elected to their posts, in a process criticized because seven of their potential rivals were arrested and two fled into exile.

 

Will China be the Lifeguard in Daniel Ortega's Nicaragua?  A bridge, a highway, a refinery, a factory, or an interoceanic canal are some of the options on the table.

 

 San Jose Costa Rica, December 8, 2022, 23 days remain until the end of the year. Feast of the Immaculate Conception (public holiday in several countries, a holy day of obligation in others), and its related observances:     The conception of the Blessed Virgin Mary (Anglican Communion), lesser commemoration.     Festa da Conceição da Praia, celebrating Yemanjá, Queen of the Ocean in Umbanda (Salvador, Bahia).     Festival of Lights (Lyon).     Mother's Day (Panama).     Lady of Camarin Day (Guam).  Rafael Alberto Vilagut, alberto.doer@gmail.com.