Nothing is going in the right direction. © COPYRIGHT 2009 - 2022 Rafael Vilagut - ravilagut@ymail.com CEO and founder of the 2nd Chance Movement. Telegram @ralviv. Inflation climbs 0.4% in September, higher than expected despite rate hikes, https://youtu.be/dsh4duukA0c
The average consumer doesn't need to be told the actual numbers since they will most likely continue to indicate a decades-high in the price of goods.
The potential for volatility is only heightened as the major indices are precariously perched at or near the lowest levels in two years. Throw in chaotic, illiquid bond and currency markets, and investors have their work cut out for them today.
The employment data is possibly the only data that looks good right now, and that's not much comfort since employment is a lagging indicator of the economy's direction. If we look beyond the employment survey, what we find is an economy where real earnings are falling, savings are falling, and more people are taking on second jobs to make ends meet.
The first indicator of this is the fact that while total jobs have shown some relatively strong growth, the total number of employed persons has been nearly flat for months, and only last month (September 2022) did it finally return to pre-covid levels. The jobs recovery in employed persons took 32 months to return to the previous peak. The fabled "v-shaped recovery" promised by advocates of covid lockdowns never materialized. Had there been a v-shaped recovery, employed persons would have recovered to previous peaks by mid-2021. It ended up taking about 18 months longer than that.
Rafael A. Vilagut, Digital entrepreneur, Author, Researcher, educator, trainer, and teacher. He lives and works between Caracas (Venezuela), Barcelona (Spain), and Central America (Costa Rica). LINK: https://linktr.ee/ravilagut
The average consumer doesn't need to be told the actual numbers since they will most likely continue to indicate a decades-high in the price of goods.
The potential for volatility is only heightened as the major indices are precariously perched at or near the lowest levels in two years. Throw in chaotic, illiquid bond and currency markets, and investors have their work cut out for them today.
The employment data is possibly the only data that looks good right now, and that's not much comfort since employment is a lagging indicator of the economy's direction. If we look beyond the employment survey, what we find is an economy where real earnings are falling, savings are falling, and more people are taking on second jobs to make ends meet.
The first indicator of this is the fact that while total jobs have shown some relatively strong growth, the total number of employed persons has been nearly flat for months, and only last month (September 2022) did it finally return to pre-covid levels. The jobs recovery in employed persons took 32 months to return to the previous peak. The fabled "v-shaped recovery" promised by advocates of covid lockdowns never materialized. Had there been a v-shaped recovery, employed persons would have recovered to previous peaks by mid-2021. It ended up taking about 18 months longer than that.
Rafael A. Vilagut, Digital entrepreneur, Author, Researcher, educator, trainer, and teacher. He lives and works between Caracas (Venezuela), Barcelona (Spain), and Central America (Costa Rica). LINK: https://linktr.ee/ravilagut
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