🌎 On the Brink: Trump Leaves G7, Israel-Iran War Intensifies, and the World Prepares for Extreme Scenarios

🌎 On the Brink: Trump Leaves G7, Israel-Iran War Intensifies, and the World Prepares for Extreme Scenarios

✍️ By Rafael Alberto Vilagut Vega
📅 June 17, 2025 | Feliz y Saludable Blog

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🕰️ A Critically Delicate Moment

In just one week, the world has entered a dangerously escalating situation:

• Israel and Iran have been exchanging open fire for five consecutive days.

• Donald Trump left the G7 yesterday, creating an unprecedented diplomatic rupture amid an ongoing conflict Video.

• Civilian and military casualties continue to rise as traditional diplomatic systems appear ineffective.

• Financial markets are reacting with sharp swings: stock market rallies, gold pullbacks, and surging oil prices.

Geopolitical analysts across Europe, the U.S., the Middle East, and Asia all agree: we are facing a historic tipping point.

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🔎 Why Is Trump’s G7 Exit So Significant?

The G7 represents the core of the Western democratic alliance.
Trump’s departure:

• Breaks Western diplomatic unity.

• Reduces the chances of coordinated multilateral pressure on Iran.

• Increases the risk of unilateral U.S. military action.

• Encourages other regional players (Russia, China) to redefine their roles.

Trump’s message is clear: The U.S. is ready to act alone if deemed necessary.

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🎯 What Options Are Now on the Table?

According to expert analysts and military intelligence sources, there are currently three main scenarios:

1️⃣ Temporary Containment (Most Likely Short-Term Scenario – 40%)

• An indirect ceasefire is brokered through unofficial channels (Qatar, Russia, Turkey).

• No direct attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

• Markets regain some stability but remain volatile.

2️⃣ Limited Escalation (30%)

• Israel intensifies its selective strikes.

• Iran retaliates with mid-range missiles targeting Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or U.S. bases.

• The U.S. increases its naval presence in the Gulf without immediate strikes.

• Oil and gold prices surge. Stock markets decline.

3️⃣ Direct Confrontation (Rapidly Growing Risk – 30%)

• The U.S. leads a surgical strike on Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

• Iran activates proxy networks: Hezbollah, Yemen, Syria, Shia militias in Iraq.

• Possible partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

• Crude oil prices may exceed $150 per barrel, gold could reach all-time highs.

• Global stock markets would likely experience a sharp correction.

Detailed video analysis here

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💰 How Should Investors Prepare?

As we always say at Feliz y Saludable:
We cannot control geopolitical events, but we can prepare financially:

• Maintain high liquidity.

• Diversify assets across multiple currencies (USD, CHF, EUR).

• Increase exposure to defensive assets: high-grade bonds, precious metals, infrastructure, energy, defense.

• Consider risk hedging (portfolio insurance, put options, inverse ETFs).

• Avoid aggressive speculative positions during high uncertainty.

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🔮 Conclusion: A New Global Order Is Taking Shape

This conflict goes far beyond Israel and Iran.
We are witnessing a global realignment where:

• The U.S.–China-Russia rivalry intensifies.

• Europe remains divided and weakened.

• The G7 loses influence as a global governance mechanism.

• Financial markets remain vulnerable to "black swan" events with potentially devastating effects.

Now more than ever, dear reader, I urge you to:
👉 Stay well-informed
👉 Seek advice from independent experts
👉 Build a crisis-proof diversified portfolio

If you would like a personalized assessment of your financial situation amid these scenarios, feel free to contact me:

📧 rafaelvilagut@gmail.com
📱 WhatsApp: +506 6110 8665

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Sources: DW, Global Times, Infobae, YouTube, international analysts, and Feliz y Saludable’s own sources.