Russo-Ukrainian War: cyber warfare, and heightened political tensions, 8 years, 9 months, 2 weeks, and 2 days. Where will it all end?

Russo-Ukrainian War: cyber warfare, and heightened political tensions, 8 years, 9 months, 2 weeks, and 2 days. Where will it all end?

Explosions hit military bases deep within Russian territory, DW News, https://youtu.be/UFug2Wf3DcU. Explosions at Russian airbases raise the possibility Kyiv can target Moscow’s long-range bombers; the German chancellor cautions against creating a new cold war. The Kremlin has warned the new western price cap on Russian oil will destabilize global energy markets, but claimed it would not impact its invasion of Ukraine. Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia was preparing its response to the move by the G7 and allies.

Olaf Scholz has warned the west to avoid creating a new cold war by dividing the world into blocs. Writing in an opinion piece for Foreign Affairs magazine, published today, the German chancellor called for every effort to be made to build new partnerships. He singled out China and Russia as two countries that pose a threat to a multipolar world.

The Chinese foreign ministry has said it will continue energy cooperation with Russia after the G7, EU and Australia imposed a price cap on Russian oil exports. China, which said it would continue based on respect and mutual benefit, has increased its purchases of Russia’s Urals oil blends this year.

The Russo-Ukrainian War has been ongoing between Russia (alongside Russian separatists in Ukraine) and Ukraine since February 2014. Following Ukraine's Revolution of Dignity, Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine and supported pro-Russian separatists in the war in Donbas against Ukrainian government forces; fighting for the first eight years of the conflict also included naval incidents, cyber warfare, and heightened political tensions. In February 2022, the conflict saw a major escalation as Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

In early 2014, pro-Russian Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych was ousted from office as a result of the pro-European Euromaidan and the Revolution of Dignity. Shortly after Yanukovych's overthrow and exile to Russia, pro-Russian unrest erupted in Ukraine's eastern and southern regions. Simultaneously, unmarked Russian troops moved into Ukraine's Crimea and took control of strategic positions and infrastructure, including government buildings. Russia soon annexed Crimea after a highly disputed Crimean status referendum.

In April 2014, pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region proclaimed the establishment of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic with considerable but clandestine support from Russia. Ukrainian attempts in late 2014 to retake separatist-held areas were unsuccessful, leading to a protracted war in Donbas. Although Russia continued to deny involvement, Russian troops directly participated in the undeclared war. In February 2015, the Minsk II agreements were signed by both Russia and Ukraine in an attempt to end the conflict, but the agreements were never fully implemented in the years that followed. The war in Donbas settled into a violent but static conflict between Ukraine and Russian proxies, with frequent brief ceasefires but no lasting peace and few changes in territorial control.

Beginning in 2021, Russia built up a large military presence near its border with Ukraine, including from neighboring Belarus. Russian President Vladimir Putin criticized the enlargement of NATO and demanded that Ukraine be barred from ever joining the military alliance. He also expressed irredentist views and questioned Ukraine's right to exist. On 21 February 2022, Russia officially recognized the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic as independent states. Three days later, Putin announced a "special military operation" in Ukraine during a televised broadcast, marking the start of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The invasion was internationally condemned, leading many countries to impose sanctions against Russia and ramp up existing sanctions.

The ongoing full-scale war has resulted in a major refugee crisis and tens of thousands of deaths. Russia abandoned an attempt to take Kyiv in early April 2022 amid fierce resistance. In late September, Russia announced its annexation of several parts of southern and eastern Ukraine, drawing widespread condemnation. Ukrainian counteroffensives in the south and northeast have recently retaken significant areas.

In recent months, the number of sudden troop deployments conducted by Russian tactical combat aircraft over Ukraine has “reduced significantly”, according to the UK Ministry of Defence. Russian aircraft now probably conduct tens of missions per day, compared with a high of up to 300 a day in March 2022, the latest British intelligence report suggests.

Vladimir Putin is now “better informed” about the difficulties facing his forces in Ukraine, the head of US intelligence has said. Speaking during a defense forum at the weekend, Avril Haines, the US director of national intelligence, indicated the Russian President was no longer insulated from bad news arising from his invasion of Ukraine.

The US expects a “reduced tempo” in fighting to continue over the winter months, adding that there could be brighter prospects for Ukrainian forces in the coming months.

Heavy fighting continues around the key Donbas town of Bakhmut, where Russian forces have been struggling for six months to make minimal progress. Reports on social media suggested Ukrainian forces were making progress in operations on the east bank of the Dnipro River, opposite the recently liberated city of Kherson, after a reported amphibious landing on the Kinburn Spit last month. Russian forces have also intensified artillery attacks on the Kherson region since withdrawing from the western bank of the Dnipro.

A draft resolution is circulating at the United Nations for a Nuremberg-style tribunal to hold Russia accountable for crimes of aggression in Ukraine. Signs also indicate that US opposition to the proposal may be softening in the face of lobbying by the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky. Beth Van Schaack, the US ambassador for global criminal justice, said this week: “So far, all of the [UN general assembly] resolutions on Ukraine have prevailed. The numbers have been quite strong.” The international criminal court has already started investigating war crimes in Ukraine but cannot prosecute the Kremlin leadership over the broader crime of aggression since Russia is not a signatory to the relevant statute.

US intelligence chief Avril Haines said there was worrying evidence that Russia was seeking to deepen military cooperation with Iran. Where will it all end? The conflict in Ukraine appears further than ever from resolution. Nuclear threats, mass graves, the sense that both sides are “all in”.

San Jose Costa Rica, Monday, December 5, 2022, Rafael Alberto Vilagut, alberto.doer@gmail.com.